This blog is focused on the Fiat currency changes that are taking place as the US Dollar slowly changes from the reserve currency, and is supplanted by ? A basket of currencies including (but not limited to) the BRIC countries. Brazil, Russia, India and China? IMF SDR? The "Amero"?

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

China hopes the US can curb its Federal Deficit

I am glad to see that while I was gone, stupidity didn't go away. Amused readers want to take a look at this:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/28/content_11786774.htm


China hopes U.S. will cut budget deficit

BEIJING, July 28 -- China expressed its hope that the U.S. government will be able to cut its budget deficit in order to prevent inflation that could jeopardize the value of China's dollar-denominated assets, as the two countries wrapped up the first of two days of high-level talks here.

"We sincerely hope the U.S. fiscal deficit would be reduced, year after year," Zhu Guangyao, assistant minister of finance, told reporters after the conclusion of the first day of talks, which have been dubbed the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue.

"The Chinese government is responsible and first and foremost our responsibility is [for] the Chinese people, so of course we are concerned about the security of the Chinese [dollar] assets," Zhu said.

China holds a total of more than 800 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. treasury debt, making it America's largest foreign creditor.

As a result of recent American efforts to counter the financial crisis and stimulate the economy, U.S. government spending has soared, and is projected to reach 1.84 trillion U.S. dollars this year. That is more than four times the previous high.

Many investors and economists fear this deficit spending will lead to inflation, as the increase in the supply of dollars drives down their value, thereby also reducing the value all dollar-denominated assets, including U.S. Treasury bonds. As a result, some investors have started to buy shorter-term bonds, which they hope will not be impacted by any longer-term inflation driven by increased government spending.

U.S. Secretary of Treasury Timothy Geithner assured the Chinese delegation in his opening remark on Monday that U.S. has taken steps to overhaul its financial system, enhance regulation, and control the deficit.

"We are committed to taking measures to maintain greater savings and to reducing the federal deficit to a sustainable level by 2013," he said. However, Geithner did not reveal how, specifically, the United States planned to achieve its deficit-cutting goals during the dialogue.

Both American and Chinese officials, however, agreed that the economy has begun to slowly stabilize.

"We have agreed that green shoots have emerged in the international economy and financial markets," said Zhu. However, the economic foundation is far from being sound, and the current situation remains severe, Zhu warned.

Of course Geither didn't reveal how the US plans to cut its deficit. He can't. Because it can't be done.

Why?

Because the US has strategic goals that are diametrically opposed to each other. For example, Obama wants to reform Health care by insuring everyone ,but he wants to balance the budget. Obama wants to pay for it by streamlining paperwork. No mention of rationing. No mention of the fact that you always have unlimited demand for free services. As long as the US lives the fantasy that you can get something for nothing, then we will all be treated to lie after lie from administration and administration.

I suspect that behind the scenes, Geithner promised the Chinese that the US will not pursue the IP legal issues that the Chinese piracy scene nurtures. Giethner probably promised that the US will do everything in its power to get the US consumer back to consuming Chinese goods.

Remember that although China calls the shots now (as evidenced from the above statement that China is the largest holder of US debt), China is still a very fragile country internally. 2012 is the 100 year anniversary of the collapse of the Chinese empire. The old hundred names in China normally suffer in silence. But occasionally that silence gets broken with revolutionary cries.

Those cries will get louder and louder as unemployment goes higher and higher. So although China is in a good long term position relative to the US in regards to spending, they by no means are a lock in assuming the mantle of reserve currency. China still has problems that have to be resolved.

back from vacation & thoughts on what I saw ...

Hawaii is very nice!

I just got back from a wonderful vacation to Hawaii. We finally saved enough to go, and considering the fact that American Airlines may go out of business, I wanted to use my American Airlines points before that happened.

If you haven't gone, go. Oahu is a must see.

I spent an entire day at Pearl Harbor. It is very moving to stand on the bow of the Missouri and gaze across the harbour at the corpse of the Arizona and all the men entombed. I wondered what is was like, back in 1941 to see 353 planes (in two waves) come at you across the mountains. Dropping bombs, strafing with 40 mm and skimming torpedos. All on a Sunday morning after a night of hard partying Sat night.

Watching the sun stretch across the Pacific, I was struck by the fact that most people don't realize that a large driver for WWII was resource conflict between Japan and the USA. Japan didn't have a choice (from their perspective) when Roosevelt cut off oil supplies. They wanted to be a colonial power (like France, Great Britain, the USA, etc) and were miffed when the US said no.

No to their occupation of China.
No to their expansion.

Reading the history books (as it usually is) it was obvious that Japan was going to do something. But it is amazing to see the remains of the destruction from the last world war. WWII was the most recent war that was fought over resource exploitation. But it certainly won't be the last.

Monday, July 6, 2009

China officials call for displacing dollar, in time

Tired from 4th of July activity, readers are looking over this article


Here are the relevant parts, with comments below:

BEIJING (Reuters) - The financial crisis has laid bare defects in the dollar-led global economy and the world should look to displace the U.S. currency, even if that will take many years, Chinese officials said in comments published on Monday...

The Special Drawing Right (SDR), a unit of account used by the International Monetary Fund, presents a viable alternative to the dollar as a global reserve currency, said Li Ruogu, chairman of the Export-Import Bank of China, a major state-run bank.

"It is a feasible plan to reform the present SDR and make it into a real settlement currency, a universally accepted 'currency basket' that would replace the dollar at the heart of the monetary system," Li was cited as saying in Financial News, a newspaper published by the central bank.

...

"The financial crisis caused the global economy to suffer heavy losses and it also let us clearly see how unreasonable the current international monetary system is," Li, a former central bank vice governor, said.

...

INTERNAL TENSION

The tension between China's vision for a radical overhaul of the global financial system and its big stake in the existing order has been on display in the run-up to the G8 summit, which starts on Wednesday in Italy.

China holds an estimated 70 percent of its $1.95 trillion in official foreign exchange reserves in the dollar and is wary of saying anything that would undermine the value of its investments.

...

Officials from other countries who will attend this week's G8 summit have said that Beijing has asked for discussion there about the future of reserve currencies. He Yafei has said that he was unaware of China making such a request.

...

"When a country that issues a reserve currency has a long-term trade deficit, then that currency is no longer suitable to be a reserve currency and the process to replace it should start," he was quoted as saying by local media.

...

Sources involved in preparation of the meetings said Brazil and India backed Beijing's call for debate but there was consensus among the G8 countries, at least, that nothing of significance could or should materialize at this stage.

What we have here is a dilemma: A situation with two or more outcomes. One bad, but the other(s) worse.

If China were to announce that they were no longer going to buy US Treasuries, then that would have an immediate and negative impact on their dollar holdings. But if China were to continue down the road that they have been on (buying US debt so to finance US Deficit spending), then they know that they (eventually) would be in deeper when it all collapses.

So what does China do? Keep buying US debt while at the same time moving behind the scenes to move away from the US dollar as the reserve currency. They aren't ready for that to happen yet, but they see where everything is headed and want to limit the damage to themselves as much as possible.

Also keep in mind the fact that China is reeling from the US consumer's decision (some voluntarily, others not) to stop spending as evidenced by the 7% savings rate. Millions of Chinese peasants have been thrown out of work (with no safety net, I might add) and are having to decide to go back to the farm or wait for another job to open up somewhere. That is why the Chinese stimulus package was passed. It has nothing to do with the world economy. It has everything to do with keeping 50 million people employed and not wanting to change things.

Thursday, July 2, 2009

China smart to play dumb

4th of July ready readers are looking at this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKAI2cOhz8oU

Dollar Gains as China Says ‘Not Aware’ of Reserve Currency Talk

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar strengthened after a Chinese Foreign Ministry official said he hoped the greenback would remain stable and was “not aware” of a plan to discuss a new reserve currency at next week’s Group of Eight meeting

“We hope that as the main reserve currency the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar will be stable,” China’s Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei told reporters in Beijing. “This international financial crisis has fully exposed the weaknesses and loopholes in the international monetary system.”

Of course they are. China needs for the US dollar to remain as stable as possible right now. They are not ready for US markets to crumble, for the US consumer to stop consuming. Unfortunately both of those things happened and now China (and everyone else) has to deal with it. The real trick will be to see how long can China, Bernake (as long as he has a job), Geither, and the ECB can convince the world that the Emperor still has really cool looking threads.

The problem with *ANY* fiat currency (even one backed with Nukes and Latte's) is that once the lumpenmasses lose faith in it, then the game is up. The problem right now is even though people have lost faith in the greenback they have lost even more faith in *every* other currency more! The real test will come when China has another Tiananmen episode and those 50 million unemployed Chinese don't meekly go back to their hovels. I still see China and the BRICS ascendant, not through their stellar performance, buty due to the US living beyond its means for too long. Because of that, you will see periods where China looks weak (and is weak), but ultimately the US's structural deficit spending will become the dominant issue.

The only way out of this dilemma, is both Dems and Reps reign in their profligate spending and all Americans champion cuts in their favorite programs. In other words, never!